Iranian Officials Threaten Retaliation for Israeli Strikes

It was unclear how or when Iran plans to respond, or whether the rhetoric could be bluster. Iranian officials had downplayed the damage of Israel’s last attack.

By Farnaz Fassihi

Two top Iranian officials on Thursday said Iran planned to respond to Israel’s recent attacks, according to Iranian media, threatening to continue a cycle of retaliation between the countries.

“Iran’s response to the Zionist aggression is definite,” said Gen. Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, according to Iranian media. “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years. We are capable of destroying all that the Zionists possess with one operation.”

General Fadavi’s remarks, made to Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen television station, were the first statement from an Iranian official indicating that Iran intended to retaliate to Israel’s Oct. 26 strikes on its soil. The escalating tit-for-tat cycle of direct attacks between Iran and Israel over the last six months has taken the region to the brink of an all-out war, but neither side appears to be standing down.

The second Iranian official, the head of the supreme leader’s office, Gholamhossein Mohammadi Golpayegani, also said on Thursday that Iran planned to deliver “a fierce, tooth-breaking response” to Israel’s “desperate action,” according to Tasnim, a semiofficial news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.

It remains unclear how and when Iran plans to respond, whether it could still be persuaded not to, whether the remarks could be bluster to gain leverage in negotiations, or whether Iran would wait until after the American elections next week to take action.

In deciding whether to respond, Iran’s leaders face a gamble: A military response meant to deter Israeli attacks could backfire, inviting even more destructive attacks that could harm its economy and infrastructure.

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A new billboard in Tehran on Sunday with photos of President Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on the right side, labeled as “Warmongers,” and President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran and a military officer on the other side.Credit...Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

That scenario played out this month, when Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, calling it retaliation for Israeli assassinations of top leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and its own military commanders. In turn, Israel hit air defenses around several critical oil and petrochemical refineries and a major port in Iran, as well as giant fuel mixers that make propellant for Iran’s missile fleet.

Iranian officials and state media have publicly downplayed the severity of Israel’s attacks, saying that Iran’s air defenses successfully thwarted most of Israel’s missiles and drones.

But analysts say that Israel had effectively taken out some of the important air defense systems around Tehran and the energy sites, making Iran particularly vulnerable to future attacks. Israel’s strikes on missile plants targeted Iran’s missile production capacity not its arsenal of missiles, which could still be placed on mobile launchers to attack Israel.

“They are willing to take this risk to not appear weak and prove they have a grip on power for both domestic and international credibility,” said Sina Azodi, an expert on Iran’s military and an adjunct professor at George Washington University.

Mr. Azodi added that despite the rhetoric emerging from Iran, it was currently at a draw with Israel in terms of two direct attacks against the other. Another strike, he said, “would come across as Iran escalating but they do not see this as an existential threat.”

Three Iranian officials familiar with the war planning said Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had instructed the Supreme National Security Council on Monday to prepare for attacking Israel. The officials said Mr. Khamenei made the decision after he reviewed a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defense systems around Tehran, critical energy infrastructure and a main port in the south.

Mr. Khamenei said the scope of Israel’s attack as well as the number of casualties — at least four soldiers from the military were killed — were too large to ignore, and that not responding would mean admitting defeat, according to the three officials.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. They said that military commanders were preparing a list of dozens of military targets inside Israel, but that the attacks would very likely happen after the American election because Iran was concerned that another spike of tension and chaos in the region could benefit former President Donald J. Trump in his re-election campaign.

The commander in chief of the Quds Forces, the external branch of the Guards responsible for supporting and training the regional proxy militant groups, Gen. Ismail Ghaani, said in a statement on Thursday that Iran would stand with its ally Hezbollah, which is locked in a war with Israel in Lebanon and has come under heavy attacks on its leadership and arsenal.

Israeli leaders have also indicated they are ready to make more direct attacks on Iran, if necessary.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that the recent attacks on Iran had made it so Israel could inflict even more damage in a second round of strikes.

“We hit its underbelly. The boastful talk by the Iranian regime’s heads cannot conceal and compensate for the fact that Israel now has greater freedom to operate in Iran than ever before,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a speech to Israeli military personnel.

Farnaz Fassihi is the United Nations bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the organization, and also covers Iran and the shadow war between Iran and Israel. She is based in New York. More about Farnaz Fassihi