U.S. warns Iran: We won't be able to restrain Israel if you attack

By Barak Ravid

The Biden administration warned Iran in recent days against launching another attack on Israel and stressed it won't be able to restrain the Israelis, according to a U.S. official and a former Israeli official briefed on the issue.

Why it matters: After Iran attacked Israel on Oct. 1, in response to a string of Israeli assassinations, Israel responded by hitting military targets but not nuclear or oil production facilities.

Behind the scenes: "We told the Iranians: We won't be able to hold Israel back, and we won't be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one," a U.S. official said.

• The U.S. official said the message was conveyed directly to the Iranians — notable because such direct contacts are rarely disclosed. The Israeli official said a messaged was passed from Washington to Tehran through the Swiss.

• The White House declined to comment. The Iranian mission to the UN did not immediately offer comment.

State of play: Iran has vowed to respond, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said at event with students on Saturday that the U.S. and Israel "will definitely receive a crushing response."

• Esmail Kowsari, a member of the national security committee in Iran's parliament, said Saturday that Iran's security council had agreed on a response but not yet on the exact date and scope.

• Kowsari said the attack will be executed in coordination with other "resistance" groups in the region and will be stronger than Iran's Oct. 1 attack, which involved 180 ballistic missiles.

What they're saying: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Friday that the administration had "been very clear that Iran should not respond" and that "we will continue to support Israel" if they do.

• Pentagon press secretary Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday that the U.S. was moving additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several U.S. Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the Middle East.

• "Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people," Ryder said.

Catch up quick: On October 25, Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran in retaliation for the Oct. 1 Iranian attack.

• The Israeli attack took place after several weeks of coordination and consultation with the U.S. during which both parties reached an understanding about the kind of targets that would be attacked — and that oil and nuclear facilities were off the table, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

Driving the news: In recent days, Israeli intelligence suggested Iran was preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory, possibly before the U.S. presidential election, Axios reported.

• Israeli officials said the attack could include a joint attack from Iraqi soil by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and allied Shia militias using drones and ballistic missiles.

• U.S. officials confirmed that such a scenario remains likely in the coming days.

• Carrying the attack out through pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and not directly from Iranian territory could be an attempt by Iran to avoid another Israeli attack against strategic targets in Iran.

The bottom line: Israeli and U.S. officials said that Israel could respond even if the Iranian attack comes from Iraqi territory.

• "It will depend on how massive the attack is and what are its results," an Israeli official said.