What visuals reveal about the impact of Israeli strikes on Iran

Satellite imagery analyzed by The Washington Post shows damage to two air defense installations and at least three sites associated with missile production.

By Susannah George and Jarrett Ley

Israeli airstrikes on Iran last week damaged the country’s missile production capabilities and air defenses, an analysis of satellite imagery showed, in an attack that analysts said will limit Tehran’s ability to retaliate and set Iranian deterrence policy back years.

Though Iran downplayed the extent of the impact, satellite imagery analyzed by The Washington Post shows damage to two radar sites associated with Iran’s air defenses and at least three sites associated with missile production.

The Israeli attacks — which saw foreign warplanes in the skies over Tehran for the first time since the Iran-Iraq war — showcased the depths of Iran’s vulnerability after a string of recent setbacks. Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the regional militias Iran has funded for years as a forward line of defense, have sustained withering blows recently, and are no longer able to insulate the country from direct confrontation.

When Iran has struck back at Israel — launching direct attacks in April and again in October — few of the munitions made it through Israeli air defenses.

“It’s put Iran in a strategic dilemma,” said Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, who predicted Saturday’s attacks could change the trajectory of the Iran-Israel conflict. Tehran may opt to abandon military escalation in favor of diplomacy, or could forge ahead with the development of its nuclear capabilities as a last line of deterrence, according to Brew and other analysts.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations declined to comment.

The damage to weapons sites run by the ministry of defense was observed in Parchin and Khojir, on Tehran’s eastern edge, and at an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility in Shahrud, about 200 miles east of the Iranian capital — all believed to part of Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Satellite imagery taken the morning after the strikes shows at least five damaged structures in Parchin and Khojir.

The complex in Parchin uses specialty mixers to produce the solid propellant motors that Iran uses to power its most advanced missiles, according to Fabian Hinz, a fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Striking these facilities, Hinz said, creates a crucial bottleneck: “If you can’t produce the motors, you can’t produce the missiles.”

“Iran right now is in a position where it needs to replenish its stockpiles and prepare for further [missile] exchanges,” Hinz added. “This strike makes it more difficult.”

Undermining the country’s missile production capabilities “changes the balance of power,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday. “Their supplies are now set, and this affects their calculus.”

Satellite imagery also revealed damage to at least one IRGC-run building in Shahrud. Analysts said it was likely used to cast solid fuel for existing models of Iranian missiles and, perhaps more critically, had the potential to be used for the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles, which Iran has yet to develop.

John Krzyzaniak, a research associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, said the building hit was likely the structure used for casting because it’s the tallest on the site. “The casting building has a “pit” where the rocket motor is poured,” he said, necessitating a tall structure that can also accommodate “cranes capable of lifting the motor out.”

The Shahrud site also houses the IRGC space program that, according Hinz and Krzyzaniak, develops large solid rocket motors that could also be used for longer-range ballistic missiles. “They develop space launch vehicles that have a large technological overlap with long-range ballistic missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles. So if they would ever make that decision to build an ICBM they would have the key capabilities already in place,” Hinz said.

Damage to Iranian air defenses was visible in the west of the country, according to satellite imagery of radar installations near Ilam and Ahvaz, both within 50 miles of the Iraqi border. That Ilam site is believed to house an S-300 air defense system equipped with long-range radar systems designed to provide early warning of an attack and engage in interception, according to analysts.

Iranian air defenses operate in multiple layers. Some systems are domestically manufactured, but the S-300 systems from Russia are the most effective and are believed to protect some of Iran’s most sensitive sites, including nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure, according to Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iranian-Russian ties and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.

Grajewski describes the S-300, which Iran worked to secure from Moscow for nearly a decade, as the “crown jewel” of the country’s air defenses.

“We suffered a minor damage, which we immediately repaired and replaced by using our own knowledge and scientific power,” Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said Monday. While it was not possible to assess the extent of the damage from satellite imagery, analysts said fixing the system would likely be more time-consuming and complex than officials have indicated.

While Iran has vowed to respond to the Israeli attacks, it is unlikely to act quickly. Analysts said it will first want to repair its air defenses before doing anything that could trigger additional Israeli strikes.

“Both their attack and defensive capabilities have been weakened,” Gallant said.

By Susannah George

Susannah George is The Washington Post's Gulf bureau chief, based in Dubai, where she leads coverage of the oil-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf and their neighbor, Iran. She previously spent four years as The Post's Afghanistan-Pakistan bureau chief. follow on X @sgreports

By Jarrett Ley

Jarrett Ley is a graphics reporter for The Washington Post's Visual Forensics team. His reporting mobilizes open-source investigation methods alongside spatial analysis techniques honed through his prior training as an architect. follow on X @osviz_jarrett