Will Iran Go to War With Israel? What We Know

By Jordan King

With an attack from Israel on Iran believed to be imminent, fears of an all-out war between the two enemies that could entangle other countries and threaten global stability are coming to a head.

Israel has promised to retaliate after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles at the country earlier this month. This followed the killing of Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and was in response to "the intensification of the regime's evils with the support of the United States," the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said at the time. The latter refers to attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said the country's "action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation."

"In that scenario, our response will be stronger and more powerful," he added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli miltary quickly vowed retaliation.

Iranian protesters burn a representation of the U.S. and Israeli flag in Tehran on June 8, 2018. Fears of an all-out war between Israel and Iran enemies are rising.

"We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us—we will attack him," Netanyahu said.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly told his country's military to prepare multiple different responses to an Israeli attack, but is hoping to avoid an all-out war, according to four Iranian officials who spoke anonymously to the New York Times this week.

The group, which includes two members of the IRGC, said Khamenei had made clear that the scope of Iran's retaliation would largely be determined by how severe Israel's attack is.

They claimed that, if Israel strikes a few military bases and weapons-storing warehouses, Iran may not retaliate at all.

But Khamenei has reportedly ordered a response if Israel hits oil and/or energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities, as well as if senior officials are assassinated.

Any retaliation could include a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles, escalated attacks by Iranian proxy militant groups and disruption to the flow of global energy supplies.

Newsweek has contacted the Israeli Ministry of Defense, via email, for comment.

Beni Sabti a researcher in the Iran program at The Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told Newsweek the report shows Iran "wants to minimize the attack or the damage against them, and of course bring international pressure against Israel."

He said: "Threatening by words is an old and even ancient way of avoiding a big war. Even in the ancient times two warriors stood against each other and sang threatening songs just to make the other one frightened and avoid casualties."

Netanyahu has reportedly told the Joe Biden administration he will not strike oil or nuclear facilities in Iran, according to two officials quoted by The Washington Post.

Biden has said he would not support Israel launching a retaliatory strike on nuclear sites in Iran, but he also reiterated his support for Israel, saying: "Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel."

During a visit to Israel's Hatzerim air base on Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told personnel: "After we attack in Iran, they will understand in Israel and elsewhere what your preparations have included."

He went on to add, on X, formerly Twitter: "In my conversation with (air force personnel) I emphasized – after we attack Iran, everyone will understand your might, the process of preparation and training – any enemy that tries to harm the state of Israel will pay a heavy price."

Several Middle East analysts told Newsweek they believe Israel will strike Iran while America is preoccupied with its election, which is less than two weeks away.

"Israel will use this time—while the U.S. is busy with itself and the election—to hit Iran, while the U.S. is not warning or stopping it," Sabti said.

Similarly, Michael Pregent, a senior Middle East analyst at the Hudson Institute think tank, said it is typical for countries to take advantage of such a window.

"Israel is basically taking advantage of a permissive environment ahead of the U.S. election to get all it can," he told Newsweek.

He believes this will continue during a "lame duck session," in the period before the new president takes office, when Israel will "continue to step up their attacks, to get all they can."